Things Are Worse Than They Seem

The election is behind us and once again the Democratic Party lost. 

I don’t know how many of those on my circulation list are Republicans but to those who are I offer my congratulations, though I think that in time you too may realize that you have made a grave error. 

Be that as it may, I here address those who felt passionately that Bush was the head of an Administration that represented the worse approach to almost every aspect of policy that one can conceive of whether foreign or domestic. It was a bitter pill to swallow and many came away angry and hostile. As for me I felt no anger, only sadness.

My sadness is enhanced because I believe the situation is even more dire than at first appears. Many take comfort in the fact that the election was close; that a relatively few votes going the other way in Ohio could have swung the election the other way; that in the election four years before Gore actually won the popular vote and but for some flukes in Florida might have won the Presidency. Unfortunately this ignores some very unpleasant facts. 

In 1977, more than half of the public (51%) identified themselves as Democrats, compared with barely one-in-five who called themselves Republicans (21%). The parties drew nearly even by the end of the 1980s and have remained almost even since then. (Source The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press) 

Since 1969 to the present time and including the period to the end of the next Bush term in in 2008, Democrats will have held the Presidency for a total of 12 years while Republicans will have held that office for a total of 26 years. 

Since 1969 Democrats held both houses of Congress until 1980. Following that period no party held the Presidency and both Houses of Congress, except for the first two years of the Clinton Presidency. Since then Republicans have held both Houses of Congress except for a short period of time when the Senate was tied following the defection of Senator Jeffords and in this election they increased their majorities in both Houses of Congress.

It is highly likely that at the end of the Bush term Republicans or more accurately right wing activists will control the Judiciary. 

Even if Gore or Kerry had won election they would not have been successful in pushing through a progressive program because a Republican Congress with the help of right wing Democrats, such as Zell Miller or even such as Senator Breaux of Louisiana, would have blocked them at every turn. Kerry’s election would have put a brake on the radical policies of the Bush Administration but it could not have reversed them.

To put it another way the tide of history is against us. In my next analysis I will discuss why I think this is so and in a third installment I will discuss what I believe must be done to reverse the trend.

At this point I would like to urge you to read an article published in the prestigious British Journal the Economist before the election entitled, "Last chance for the Democrats?"  and with the sub-title:

"The presidential election says a lot about the unequal state of America's two parties" which can be found here.